Oscars Odds & Favorites 2026: 'After the Hunt', 'Hamnet' the Early Odds Leaders
It feels like only days have passed since "Anora" was crowned Best Picture at the Oscars – and yet, with the first major festivals on the horizon, thoughts have shifted to 2026.
Festival lineups have been announced, narratives are starting to form, and Fanduel has released an early collection of contenders for next year’s Best Picture prize. We have an early list of Oscars odds and favorites for you to peruse, ahead of the 2026 Oscars ceremony on Sunday, March 15 (7 p.m. ET) at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
At this stage, almost every bet qualifies as a long shot, with Fanduel (Ontario) hesitant to give any contender more than a 13% chance of winning. Different from last year’s lineup of high-brow/auteur-driven projects, this year’s race is packed with blockbuster budgets and Hollywood royalty.
Getting this ahead of the pack can make a huge difference when looking to beat our best Oscars betting sites, and here’s a look at a few of the biggest names and key pieces in this year’s race.
🎬 Oscars Best Picture odds 2026
Here are the latest Oscars odds via FanDuel Canada to win Best Picture:
| Film | Odds | Implied Probability (%) | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| After the Hunt | +650 | 13.33 | $65 |
| Hamnet | +750 | 11.76 | $75 |
| The Ballad of a Small Player | +750 | 11.76 | $75 |
| Highest 2 Lowest | +1000 | 9.09 | $100 |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | +1000 | 9.09 | $100 |
| Sinners | +1000 | 9.09 | $100 |
| The Lost Bus | +1100 | 8.33 | $110 |
| Frankenstein | +1100 | 8.33 | $110 |
| One Battle After Another | +1400 | 6.67 | $140 |
| The Life of Chuck | +1400 | 6.67 | $140 |
| Pressure | +1600 | 5.88 | $160 |
| Bugonia | +1600 | 5.88 | $160 |
| Marty Supreme | +1600 | 5.88 | $160 |
| Deliver Me from Nowhere | +1800 | 5.26 | $180 |
| A Big Bold Beautiful Journey | +1800 | 5.26 | $180 |
| The Smashing Machine | +1800 | 5.26 | $180 |
| Nouvelle Vague | +2100 | 4.55 | $210 |
| Materialists | +2100 | 4.55 | $210 |
| Sentimental Value | +2300 | 4.17 | $230 |
| Die, My Love | +2300 | 4.17 | $230 |
| Roofman | +2400 | 4.00 | $240 |
| Wicked: For Good | +2400 | 4.00 | $240 |
| Anemone | +2800 | 3.45 | $280 |
| The History of Sound | +2800 | 3.45 | $280 |
| F1 | +3200 | 3.03 | $320 |
| Mother Mary | +3200 | 3.03 | $320 |
| The Phoenician Scheme | +3500 | 2.78 | $350 |
| Train Dreams | +3500 | 2.78 | $350 |
| Michael | +3500 | 2.78 | $350 |
| Jay Kelly | +3500 | 2.78 | $350 |
| Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery | +4100 | 2.38 | $410 |
| Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning | +4100 | 2.38 | $410 |
| Eleanor the Great | +4800 | 2.04 | $480 |
| Eddington | +4800 | 2.04 | $480 |
| Zootopia 2 | +5500 | 1.79 | $550 |
| Klara and the Sun | +5500 | 1.79 | $550 |
| The Bride! | +6500 | 1.52 | $650 |
| The Fantastic Four: First Steps | +6500 | 1.52 | $650 |
| Superman | +6500 | 1.52 | $650 |
🏆 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting favorites
After The Hunt (+650)
Boasting a talented cast in a critically praised script, the early Oscar frontrunner has all the ingredients to position itself for a big Best Picture push. Led by an industry titan in Luca Guadagnino, who already has a previous Best Picture nomination under his belt, “After The Hunt” is slated to release later this Fall.
Early buzz hints at a career-best performance from Julia Roberts, and the film’s Best Picture push will likely be tied to the success of a Roberts’ Best Actress campaign. Though many of Guadagnino’s recent films have failed to convert critical success into Oscar nominations, “After the Hunt” is considered a more ‘Oscar-friendly’ entry into the complex and emotional lens of Guadagnino.
Despite all the green flags, Fanduel has given the film little more than a 13% chance of winning and has cautiously priced the market ahead of the film’s release dates. Even though the price does not imply a heavy favourite, there is no reason to believe this film should be positioned as the frontrunner to start the season. The cast is very strong and will ensure the film is in conversations for months to come, but without anything else to go off there is not enough here to justify topping the list over some of the other featured names. All things considered, the +650 price is understandable but is a pass at this stage.
Hamnet (+750)
Another adaptation of a beloved script, “Hamnet” relives a fictional account of William Shakespeare and his wife mourning the loss of their son. The film features a deep ensemble of budding actors and is directed by Chloe Zhao, who won two Oscars for her efforts in “Nomadland”. Zhao once again finds herself on a shortlist for Best Picture glory, and with the Academy showing they have no problem in rewarding her vision this period piece may be a straightforward ticket to the Oscars.
While the cast is strong as an ensemble, “Hamnet” may lack a big lead performance to move the needle and garner widespread appeal over the films around it, and Fanduel has given the film a 12% chance of winning Best Picture. The +750 betting odds may age well in the months to come before its December release, but right now this does not look like a film that should be placed at the pinnacle of an incredibly competitive list.
🐶 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting underdogs
One Battle After Another (+1400)
Perhaps the most anticipated project on this list is the return of Paul Thomas Anderson equipped with his biggest budget to date (and Leonardo DiCaprio). The legendary director is the recipient of 11 previous Oscar nominations but is still searching for his first win in what will be his most commercially accessible film yet.
Early test screenings have been mixed, and the reluctance is enough for Fanduel to hold off and give the film just a 7% chance of winning, but armed with A-list stars like DiCaprio, Del Toro, and Penn this film is sure to dominate Best Picture and Director conversations for much of the season.
Whether the Academy will be swayed by the prospect of rewarding the film-making icon is another question, but the love for the cast and crew is enough to warrant a bet at this price. The +1400 price on Fanduel feels like a number that will not stick around.
Marty Supreme (+1600)
The enigmatic “Uncut Gems” director Josh Safdie returns with an ambitious new project, starring a leading pair of Hollywood juggernauts. “Marty Supreme” will be distributor A24’s biggest financial investment to date and is a project with clear ambitions for both box office and award season success.
Timothée Chalamet – maybe the hottest name in Hollywood right now – leads the cast and is poised to make another serious run at Best Actor, looking to make this project his third Best Picture contender in just two years.
With a win package as viable and competitive as this, giving “Marty Supreme” just a little over 5% chance feels like a misread. The odds may have tightened to +1600, but this correction is still short of the momentum building behind this film. At a number as big as +1600 this is a bet that offers the most upside on the board.
🎯 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting long shots
Sentimental Value (+2300)
From Joachim Trier comes another emotionally driven entry to build on his previous Oscar nomination. Despite being one of the smaller productions here, early festival rumors say “Sentimental Value” is a potent contender and one to look out for as the Cannes film festival gets underway.
The film is unlikely to get much of a boost from the box office or its cast and will instead have to rely on strong critical acclaim to build momentum. Last year’s Cannes winner in “Anora” proved that a film does not need a big budget with Hollywood stars to go all the way in the Oscar race and Trier will be hoping to take that same path to glory.
The value here will depend entirely on how well the film is received at Cannes, and a potential early festival win can be the breakout moment to start this film’s campaign. Despite being given a 4% chance of victory now, a major win could launch “Sentimental Value” into the race the same way “Anora” stormed the field last season. This is a +2300 long shot that can feasibly build momentum in the coming weeks.
Mother Mary (+3200)
An intriguing project that looks to pair Oscar Winner Anne Hathaway with original music from Charli XCX and Jack Antonoff, “Mother Mary” is at the opposite end of our list with just a 3% shot on Fanduel. From filmmaker David Lowery, this popstar drama could catch the eye of the industry in many craft categories including Best Song and Best Costume Design.
From a Best Picture perspective, the ceiling for this film appears limited; Lowery has had Oscar brushes before, but nothing has materialized. This is a less polarizing project with a lot more going on to help its mainstream appeal, but ultimately this film will need a career-best Anne Hathaway performance to break into the competitive shortlist.
At +3200, the price fairly reflects the uphill battle ahead for “Mother Mary”.
💸 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting pick
It’s hard to go wrong when the odds are this wide across the board. A +1400 bet on DiCaprio and PTA is well warranted at this price, but in my opinion, “Marty Supreme” at +1600 is the clear standout amongst the currently crowded pack. I think this is the bet that has the most room for improvement.
🏆 Last year's Oscars betting results
| Category | Oscar winner | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | Anora | -200 |
| Best Director | Sean Baker | -240 |
| Best Actor | Adrien Brody | -250 |
| Best Actress | Mikey Madison | +200 |
| Best Supporting Actor | Kieran Culkin | -3500 |
| Best Supporting Actress | Zoe Saldana | -2500 |
💡 How to bet on the Oscars
Odds for the 2026 Oscars are available at our best sportsbooks. It's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonus offers you can take advantage of when betting on the Oscars, and don't miss our guide for how to bet on the Oscars!.
Once you've chosen your favorite of our best sportsbooks, navigate to the section that includes Oscars 2026 odds. It may be listed under Entertainment or can be found by searching "Oscars" at your preferred sportsbook.
DraftKings had its own "Academy Awards" section last year, where you could find various betting markets available including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, and Best Lead Actress, among others.
Review the odds for each award and consider factors such as past winners, the name value of a given nominee, and the release date of a film. This information can help inform your betting decisions. Once you've selected your bet, enter the stake amount (the amount of money you want to wager) and confirm your bet.
It's essential to remember that betting on the Oscars or any sports event involves risk. Set a budget for yourself and gamble responsibly. Go and watch some movies, and may your bet be a winning one!
❓ Oscars FAQs
When are the Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 15, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
Where are the Oscars?
The Oscars will likely be held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Who's hosting the Oscars?
Conan O'Brien will reprise his role as host for the 2026 Oscars.
How to watch the Oscars
The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
🍿 Best Oscars betting sites
Looking to bet on the Oscars? Here are our best betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos ahead of the Oscars.
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission
Related Articles
